ALPA's list currently includes December classes. Maybe they know something we don't, or maybe they forgot to take that into account.

Also don't forget there will be only 35% (with no metering) after the 824 until the 40th 175 is on property. It's probably only a month or two, but it is during the summer months, when AA in recent years have had smaller classes due to instructors having to fly the line (I have no idea if that will continue). And also don't forget to take into account super senior Captains who may reverse their previous decision to flow. When many of them said no before, they were working 18-day-off day trip lines for 90 hours. Now even the senior trips are (relatively) garbage. Also, some may go over to AA in their last years to take advantage of what they perceive to be better medical, or just to say they retired an AA pilot. Considering we have 350 or so lifers, this could slow down the flow for junior people here and there.

And then there is the question of what happens when we can no longer hire as many as are leaving...