Because arbitrators use historical precedence and you are not a legacy. And full disclaimer that while it would be nice, I'm not expecting to see payrates higher than Delta/United for the new AS either. And while some (many?) will say you're undervaluing oneself, self defeatist, lack of self respect, etc, the counter argument is that one is just trying to being a realist. Historical patterns matter in pattern bargaining and there are clear and distinct rungs of airlines and their associated pay/contract. Just IMO, believing otherwise you're just gonna set yourself up for disappointment for when the AIP / TA come out.