You have two choke points at the bottom. The 1500 TT rule for guys coming from the civilian side, and the military producing less pilots. Military pilot retention is going down, so you can expect the military to try and increase its retention bonuses or try other methods to keep their pilots retained.
There are some guys starting second careers or coming back to aviation. There might be a surge of these guys when the pay bumps up and they can afford to make the switch/return, but then it drops back down.
Then you have a vacuum at the top with the majors looking to keep their planes in the air. Eventually, the regionals are going to feel the squeeze in the middle. The tighter that squeeze, the more pay and other benefits will go up at a regional.
The pilot shortage is there and is being felt. It will get worse as the regionals continue to try to fill their classes. You are already seeing more partnerships with flight schools as an attempt to reach farther back into the training pipeline to line pilots up to fill class seats. AA's WOs looking to the military rotory pilots as another source of pilots is a second example of the regionals working hard to keeps seats filled.