Originally Posted by
CBreezy
I found this on the FAA website. This is the number of estimated active pilots that hold ATP broken down by age.
20-24- 778
25-29- 5,707
30-34- 12,229
35-39- 16,349
40-44- 18,167
45-49- 22,506
50-54- 25,585
55-59- 24,749
60-64- 17,921
65-69- 9,847
So, we all know that an ATP is required right now to get hired at a regional airline. We know that the data will always skew light on the front end due to the time building requirement in order to get to an ATP, however, it appears that ATP issuance don't pick up until most pilots are in their 30s.
I think the biggest shock off a number is the end of the scale. in less than 10 years, 53,000 pilots will be ineligible to work at a 121 carrier (I say ineligible because the data I found tracks people into their 80s). To compare, that's more ATPs than exist right now between 21-39.
The data I found also reports Commercial ratings. If a pilot has a ATP and a commercial, they are only reported under ATP. So, here is the data for that:
16-19- 293
20-24- 10,058
25-29- 17,703
30-34- 12,011
35-39- 8,997
40-65- 7,000-8000 per group
There is a large group of pilots between 20-34 with commercial pilot certificates. We could assume that all of them will be converted to airline jobs, but seeing that between 7000-8000 over 65 years never make the jump, I think it's safe to assume at least some percent will remain commercial pilots over ATPs. Let's be conservative and say 6000 never convert. Even with the people with wet commercials, in the ages of 21-39, that only adds 25,000 pilots to the existing pool. This number also doesn't take into account commercial pilots who are training here and returning to their country of origin. I would be interested in seeing that number.
I did find an interesting statistic in there about original issuance. In 2013, ATP issuance spiked at 8,346. In 2014 and 2015, they dropped each year to 7,749 then 6,544. In 2016, however, there were 9,500 issued. I wonder if that corresponds with the increase in major activity picking more military from active service since most of them don't convert until they are hired. I also wonder why it dropped year over year until last year when certificates issued spiked to the highest level ever.