Originally Posted by
Flying101
Where are you getting the 4-5 year estimate? 550 pilot group, flow 4-6 per month (I heard it's 6 now) at 6 per month that's a 7.5 year flow, if its only 4 per month than that number is 11.5 years.
flow will up to 5/mo at 600 pilots. Then 1 more for every 125 on property. 1 in 125 means basic flow is in 125 months. Then take out top 100 not flowing. Take out 20 months. Then add some growth to 6 flows and #550 (450 net) becomes 450/6 = 75 mos. then add some outside attrition, say 1% or 6 monthly, say 2/mo above you, goes to 450/(6+2) = 56 months. There is your 4.5-5 yrs for a NH today
More growth = faster
More attrition = faster
Recession = slower
AA needs more = faster. I think if mainline needs more bodies, they will ravage all regionals rather than cancel flights for want of crewmen