Yes, I see it. More in tune with the AF and USA side of things than the USN and USCG, but I know I have people from at least three branches taking to me on a regular basis about walking away from the military. There's about to be a surge in available pilots in the next three years that have not been available since 2000. Mark my words.
Originally Posted by
soitgoes
If anyone has any doubt about dudes leaving/planning to leave the military en masse (AF, in particular), head over to the baseops forum and follow a thread called "Leaving the AF for the Airlines"... It's eye-opening, and ominously suggests that it's not just going to be an uptick.
People are counting down the days until their ADS commitments are up, and guys who are WELL beyond the 10-year mark are bouncing at unprecedented numbers, eschewing huge bonuses and the usually enticing idea of an AD retirement.
Add in another commonly overlooked portion of the military running to the regionals to add some quick hours/121 time to their resumes: Guard bums.
These are the young guys that, historically, fly their assess off on the Guard/Reserve side for years and years until they can either jump to the mainline or work their way into full-time jobs at their Guard squadron. There was never really any incentive for these guys to go the Regionals, as they could make more "bumming" and flying around the world. These guys now have the impetus, not to mention the new financial ABILITY (with the increase in regional pay), to run to the 121 side, pad their resumes and hours for a couple years, and walk their way into the Majors on a much shorter timeframe than has been usual.
The much-coveted full-time Guard flying gigs (usually considered THE best job in the military) that are coming open at record levels (as the senior guys are getting poached from the Majors) are actually getting snubbed by young Captain and Lieutenants who know they can make a livable wage at a Regional for a couple years (supplemented by flying Guard trips here and there), and then snag a much more lucrative job at mainline with little to no issue.
It's happening everywhere, and squadrons of all platforms are starting to feel the manning squeeze. My buddy is the scheduler at my unit and he has been complaining for months about the difficulty in filling local lines, and even the Gucci domestic/international trips that people used to stab each other in the back to get. We've had four of our full-timer pilots hired at UPS/Delta/SW in the past TWO WEEKS, and most of us young guys today were saying we weren't interested in applying for those vacancies, because it'll cut into our plan of building hours at a max rate at the regionals for the the next two to three years.
Do I know what these anecdotal evidences translate into as far as tangible numbers? No... Am I seeing direct evidence every week that military guys are going to be flooding out at a possibly unprecedented rate? Absolutely... It's already started, and it's going to get worse (or better, depending on which side of the table you're on).
Start throwing Helo guys in the mix, and those numbers are going to get even more interesting.