Originally Posted by
saturn
Don't forget the thousands that are qualified and just on the sidelines or overseas, flying $$135 and want the schedule and retirement. We could see well over 10k mil pilots over that 10 year span as well. Nobody seems to also account for those just entering and who will enter in coming years. I know several who spent minimal time at airlines who are at majors. Thousands of fresh ATPs get printed at a regional near you, most with quick upgrades in their prospects.
Haven't forgotten about them. Those that are in the "sidelines" are there because they want to be or have to be. A lot of ATPs out there are held by guys who will never re-enter the airline world no matter what happens. They were furloughed one too many times and changed careers. Others for medical or other personal reasons.
The 135 and mil have always been there.