Originally Posted by
xjtr
Why do you say that? Is it just based on the projected new aircraft deliveries? What's to say, they don't order more new aircraft in the coming years? The ULCC market still may have room to grow. There aren't many US carriers doing international flying in the ULCC model. This is one way the company could continue to grow. I'm not saying it will happen, but I don't know if I would say you'd never upgrade at F9 if you don't get hired in 2017...
My stance on the upgrades at F9 are purely based on our planned growth. Given the information available, that is my hypothesis. I don't have a crystal ball, I don't know what's going to happen in the future, but as it stands today, those hired after 2017 will have a very long time before upgrade. Retirements never hit F9 particularly hard. There is no fast track to upgrade after the planned aircraft come on property. Is that subject to change? Absolutely, but I wouldn't plan on coming to F9 in 2018 with any hopes of a quick upgrade based on current plans.
I've heard 2300-2500 pilots on property. Assuming an upgrade at 55% that means seniority number 1375. Jan 2017 hires are in the 1100 range. By the end of 2017 we will have seniority number 1350 on property. I'm no mathematician, but that's what I came up with.