Originally Posted by
TheWrightStuff
For a new hire, I would say less than a 5 year flow is extremely unlikely. If you are the 600th pilot on property, and you assume the top 150 don't flow (currently top 100 are marked 'No'), AND you assume we eventually reach 7/mo in the flow (our pilot group would have to be at 850)...it's still a 5+ year flow by the numbers.
Now, the flow is real, and who knows how attrition will work out going forward, but 3-5 years? I don't think that's very realistic. I'm not Rainman, but the math above is probably the most realistic best-case I can think of. And even then, it's the best possible scenario. I'd say, plan on about 5-7 years to flow as a new hire at this stage in the game. But that's just me.
It's hard to predict attrition but if you look at the data from PSA they were in a similar situation in 2013 with massive growth. They now have almost 2% of their group leaving outside of the flow to Delta and other carriers. With that said it normally takes 5-6 years to attain enough hours to get picked up by a major anyhow, so not having to interview again and flowing is a great benefit.