Originally Posted by
sailingfun
Some of the posters should make a effort to talk with people who ran simulations on the use of VB's. You might find it interesting. I have posted some of it in the past. The reserve staffing issue alone kills most VB's. You have to balance any saved credit hours against increased reserve requirements.
Of course. No one thinks that suddenly every city will become a VB and we'll morph into a Ryan-style no overnight airline. But VB's are at the company's discretion, and they want them to reduce credit and pilot jobs.
Maybe the specific setup we have at the moment isn't sufficient for them to do that to the extent they want. I don't think its anywhere near that point yet. But its a path they're on, and yes they are very much playing chess to our checkers as we salivate over a tiny fraction of pilots getting a couple months off a year from their commute, etc. As a bonus they can use this to create divide and conquer factions that have us fight amongst ourselves, just as they do with the ridiculous EWR "co terminal".
I agree that the simulations under the current setup likely only produced modest savings in a few cases. But that's like looking at the potential effects of "only 20" large RJ's, which was the first order they placed for them. Almost overnight it turned into hundreds once they got the taste of how delicious the damage truly was.
What I'd do if I was on the other side would be to custom craft the most benign and beneficial little bubble example of super positive pilot friendly boutique VB's, maybe even in such a way as to add to staffing (but any least take away from it minimally or not at all) and then offer something to further expand it, thus getting us to negotiate with ourselves for something they want anyway. Always seeking more but using less than you can in order to mask the future effects of growing the concept. Then once the rules are permissive enough, the other shoe drops and lots of pilot positions are permanently removed.
The savings from allowing a zillion fleet type, peaks and trough airline to sharpshoot staffing where and when they want outside of our current domicile/AE structure is substantial. Just look at the ER fleet alone, and then apply it to everything. Absolutely devastating.
The current "just the tip" (of the camel's nose...) playbook strategy they use continues to outflank us in the long run. VB's need to be pulled down ASAP. If they want to staff flying with the "armada" they have, they can already do so through the existing base, bidding, deadhead and hotel system they have. No further relief is warranted.