Originally Posted by
afterv1
I'm not the greatest at math but shouldn't this all equal out if the bock hours stay the same ? Serious question. Remember lines are awarded based on BLOCK HOURS not bases. No one knows exactly how this will all play out so let's see.
On the flip side Keep in mind attrition might increase due to guys in MSP refusing to commute to LAX . So this could actually Mean more movement as the super senior guys at the top will now try harder to move on rather than being comfortable and waiting on specific job offer. That's a tough commute I'm sure HUB to HUB
Yeah block hours will remain the same (which should increase lines in LAX and SEA), and MSP based guys are probably going try to bail. But if they're Captains they'll be more likely to stay for a call from a legacy even with a commute. The senior FOs from MSP will take the LAX upgrade that they had originally bypassed holding out for MSP.
So my bet is, if we are actually going to keep the hiring up, and restart upgrades, it'll go to the top MSP FOs who are probably senior to a good percentage of CA in LAX and SEA.
Yes there will be attrition with people leaving but I'm going to bet it won't outpace the displaced people enough to see seniority increase in leaps and bounds. So if someone was on the boarder of holding a line in LAX they will likely stay at that realitive seniority until all this has worked itself out.
Think about this, we knew with losing 6 planes hiring would resume, there would be attrition, but we also knew seniority would slow down which is why people told to expect 2-3 months of reserve are coming up on 6 or more months. With the MSP crews moving out to LA/SEA it'll have a similar effect, especially if we are already fat on FOs in LA.