Most likely the FAA is now counting the new plastic certificates instead of original issues. Many mechanics are inactive but still being counted. My oversupply theory is based on the old traditional number of mechanics per airframe and mechanic to pilot ratio. 260,000 is twice the number needed to cover the work. Also factor most heavy maintenance has left the country and new airframes have lighter maintenance schedules. Airlines have not hired new mechanics in 17yrs, they simply don't need very many anymore. I am happy to see the official numbers falling, maybe someday A&Ps can gain some pricing power or at least get their careers back.