JohnBurke

The FAA need only note how many certificates are presently issued, that have not been suspended, surrendered, or revoked, and which do not pertain to known deceased.

Oversupply theory? You opened the thread with a title which states that 57,000 A&P's have been "lost." You failed to support this assertion, and instead claimed an increase of 43,000 mechanics, and went on to backtrack and state that there is an "oversupply."

So far as the number of mechanics per airframe, given the massive disparity between aircraft types and the hours needed to support those various types, it's impossible to draw a correlation between the number of airframes and the number of mechanics per airframe. Some airframes may require large teams to maintain, others may have one mechanic maintaining several aircraft.

The number of pilots is irrelevant, and has no relationship whatsoever to the number of mechanics, or to the need for mechanics. There is no valid correlation to mechanic requirement based on the number of pilots. Moreover, given the large disparity in pilot types and functions, you'd have to be a lot more specific, and were you more specific, it would still have no bearing on a number of needed mechanics.

Considerable heavy maintenance continues to be done in the USA. Mechanics perform work other than heavy maintenance, and whether the work is done domestically or abroad, the number of airframes upon which you base your "oversupply theory" remains the same, whether those US registered aircraft fly outside the US or not.

Your assertion that most heavy maintenance has left the country is untrue, and you have not qualified it by aircraft type or type of operation.

What a fanciful and wildly idiotic thing to say. You're actually going to attempt to assert that the newest maintenance hires at any airline have been on the job for 17 years? Completely untrue.

You're happy to see the numbers falling? You just provided numbers showing an increase of 43,000.

You're all over the place, posting contradictory numbers, stating that there's a decrease, throwing out numbers which show an increase, and making assertions that you can't back up.

Many pilots are mechanics. I spent my day working in a shop where all but two mechanics were pilots, each a working commercial pilot. Of those two mechanics, one is completing a private pilot, the other hoping to start on his pilot certification soon.

Many mechanics hold certificates but don't do maintenance for a living, just as many pilots don't fly for a living. While pilots have multiple levels of certification from private to ATP, mechanics don't.

To attempt to suggest that a raw number of mechanics is an "oversupply" based on the number of pilots, number of airframes, or some other metric, is absurd.

There is no pilot shortage. There is no mechanic oversupply.

I continue to do maintenance just as I've done for decades, including heavy maintenance and everything from hydraulics to sheet metal to powerplant work on large and small radials, turboprops, and turbojet aircraft. I am a full time pilot. So far as maintenance goes, I have more work available than I could possibly take on, and more in the offering, and presently additional requests for maintenance that I can't fill due to my own time constraints. I see plenty of work for mechanics.

You cited 57,000 missing mechanics. Support your assertion.