I think you are overestimating the number of qualified apps are out there. Especially when you consider those same people are also applying at every one of 4 majors, 2 freighters, Alaska, Hawaiian, JetBlue, and maybe Spirit, Frontier, and Allegiant. Divide up all of the qualified applicants and there aren't enough to go around.
The ones that are left are either unhirable, have a blemish on their record, or are the type of guys who screw around on guard. [emoji849]
Bottom line, they're looking ahead. I don't love the idea of abinitio. But I'd rather that than the airlines growth stagnant due to insufficient pilots.
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