Meat,

In 15 years here I've never seen an accurate forecast. Another post on here somewhere pointed out the numbers they claimed they would hire, only to freeze up and stop hiring well short of those numbers. You've also seen the "we will have 6000 by xxxx..." dating back two decades.

My advice is don't sweat it. FedEx bids, hiring, and growth all tend to slide to the right, as do plane acquisitions and other projects. The uptick in 767 purchases is about the only thing I've seen happen fast since I got here.

Don't take that as complaining. Our checks clear, and this company will stop spending on hiring or planes in heartbeat when the bean counters say "pause". It gets frustrating, especially when you know in the long run we need new faces, jets, etc. Bean counters work by quarter and by FY, however, and the stock price has more than tripled since I got hired and I've never missed a paycheck, so I guess even though I know I'm smarter than any accountant (and that's sarcasm) they seem to do okay without my help.

What I will say is in 15 years I've learned a couple things here...

1. The next upgrade may be years away. If you really want to upgrade, then you better grab the ring when it comes your way. It may not come for a while. I could have held HKG captain in 2007. I could not hold it again until 2015. "It will go junior" is good AOC coffee chatter, but it doesn't always happen. Smaller clean up bids tend to also go more senior. You may hold a seat on the MOAB, but may not move up much for a long while.

2. See above. If you want to camp out and enjoy seniority, just because you bid an upgrade at 100% doesn't mean you are going to move up 10% each bid. When the hiring stops, everything stops...and musical chairs gets really quiet. Be ready to eat it at the bottom if you follow the guidance above, for a long time...

That said, you can trade, proffer, drop, and in some cases mil leave here and there and make it all work. That's the beauty of this place...its pretty flexible once you learn the ropes and use a little initiative.

But looking at a seniority chart and just hoping it will get better--that just doesn't do much for one's psyche. Tried it...lived it...don't put your hopes in a lot of rapid growth at purple. Its slow, steady, solid....but rarely is growth here for pilots exponential. We had 4200 or so when I got hired in 2002, and 15 years later we have about 4700. Thats solid, but I think you'd agree its not lightening fast.

Find a niche, hunker down, and plan on 200/year or 15 a month for the long haul. FWIW that's just a bit above what we've averaged since I got hired here...they just tended to go afterburner/idle vice leaving the power at 80% during that time.