Originally Posted by
Slowhawk
I hope you're right, especially as I'm a MSP guy who's wanted SEA. But I have also seen a recent post in this thread from a guy in SEA that says he has been sitting reserve 12 months there already
In May:
LAX 160 FO full lines awarded with 233 bidding (68.7%)
MSP 42 FO full lines awarded with 78 bidding (53.8%)
SEA 39 FO full lines awarded with 70 bidding (55.7%)
To clarify how I came up with those numbers- on my comply, I opened the May 2017 bid awards, looked at each base considering 75 hours credit to be a full line. So although in LAX the most Jr line holder was 167 it only credited 37.8. Next I went to the end of each one to see how many active bidders there were.
Flica currently shows 86 FO in MSP, 75 FO in SEA and 262 in LAX. That's a total of 423 FOs. Unfortunately only 241 of those 423 were awarded a line. That means 182 FOs were either on Reserve or non bidders.
With 9 FOs leaving in April that reduces the surplus. For Slowhawk this should give you the tools to make an informed decision.
Until we know how the MSP crew will be divided, we won't know what the mix for SEA or LAX will be. But Slowhawk and other junior FOs may be on reserve for longer than CaptainDooley thinks.
Do your own math, use the information you have available and test my theory of 80%. If the number of lines is less than 80% of bidders that tells you how overstaffed we are.
They are running upgrades and LAX CA was 78.1%, SEA CA is 77.4% and MSP CA is 61.8%.