Originally Posted by Preacher
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics over 50% of the pilots employed by part-121 US airline companies will be retiring within the next 10 years. If the mandatory age is extended at all it will only by by 2 to 5 years max. That means that nearly 38,000 pilots will need to be replaced over the next 10 to 15 years. Even if you take all of the pilots from the military, there will not be enough to fill the void. Can anyone say "outsourcing"? It won't take long for the airlines to start lobbying Congress to allow work visas for Indian pilots to come over here and fill the void. Kind of like the technology industry.
It is highly unlikely that there will ever be a pilot shortage at the majors. Regionals maybe, if their pay keeps going to sh*t and this microjet thing really takes off.
The US is unique pilot-wise in that we have a vast general aviation infrastructure that can rapidly produce CFIs in 6-8 months who become entry-level airline pilots in 1-2 years. This system has always been able to fill the void (minimums vary between 500 and 10,000 depending on the demand). No other nation has GA the way we do (the Aussies have a fair bit owing to geography). Light airplane ownership and operation is regulated and taxed to the point of non-existence in most of the world.
Many foriegn nations (including China & India) send their military and/or civilian pilot trainees to the US to participate in our GA system. You simply cannot gain operational experience in most other places.
The concept of bringing in wholesale quantities of foriegn pilots is ludicrous...congress wouldn't go for it on security issues alone, not to mention union and public perception. And even if you did, since most of them would be trained here anyway, they would quickly become americanized...they won't work for $1.25/h for long when they realize that their mortgage payment is $2,500.00/month.
The only realistic foriegn threat is cabotage, where a foriegn vessel or aircraft can provide US domestic service. This is actually illegal, and not likely to change soon (again, security & political issues).
I can understand your willingness to take an opportunity to do something that you have always wanted to, but don't come in with the attitude that you're going get it by taking shortcuts and undercutting the livelihoods of people who have worked for it and have familys to feed. That sort of individual is generally despised in this industry...you won't be welcome.