Okay, I will pull out my crystal ball. Where will regional flying be in 4 years? (I am going to protect myself by saying certainly by 2025, 8 years out.)
- There still will be a handful of small airlines flying EAS, like today. Hours will be less than the 1500, pilots will use them as stepping stones, much like instructors.
- The current equal split of 50 seat / 70 seat will slant much more towards the larger planes. A few small markets will be served by the 50s. Most will have fewer flights of the larger, or markets will build.
- There will be fewer regional airlines, only a fraction of today. Some will be absorbed by their parent major or get bought out. Some will go out of business. Some will be merged. Regionals will have between 1/4 and 1/2 of the number of pilots today.
- A lot of the 70s will be replaced by majors flying fewer 100 seat planes. There is a segment between the 70s and the 737/A320s. It used to be filled by DC-9s (and to some extent MD-80s). Currently AA wants to get rid of the E190s out of PHL. All 3 majors will reverse course and grow this 100s size flying.
Bottom line: Still some EAS. Only a fraction of the 50s planes flown by regionals. Everything will scale up to larger planes, fewer flights per day. Only a handful of regionals flying a fraction of what they do today. Majors will assume most 70s, and a newly created 100s planes.
Pay for these 70s and 100s will be 75% of 737/A320 pay. Pay for 50s, still being flown by a few regionals will be 65% of 737/A320 pay.
Once a pilot starting out gets 1500 hours, some will go to regionals for a couple of years. Some will make the jump directly to the majors (initially flying their 70s and 100s). Most military will go directly to the majors.
My crystal ball is not perfect, but that is what I see.