Originally Posted by rickair7777
It is highly unlikely that there will ever be a pilot shortage at the majors. Regionals maybe, if their pay keeps going to sh*t and this microjet thing really takes off.
I completely agree... there isn't likely going to be a shortage at the "majors." However there will likely be considerable consolidation among the majors over the next 5 years or so. When all the dust settles, we will probably only have 3 or 4 surviving "major" airlines.
Originally Posted by rickair7777
The US is unique pilot-wise in that we have a vast general aviation infrastructure that can rapidly produce CFIs in 6-8 months who become entry-level airline pilots in 1-2 years. This system has always been able to fill the void (minimums vary between 500 and 10,000 depending on the demand). No other nation has GA the way we do (the Aussies have a fair bit owing to geography). Light airplane ownership and operation is regulated and taxed to the point of non-existence in most of the world.
Many foriegn nations (including China & India) send their military and/or civilian pilot trainees to the US to participate in our GA system. You simply cannot gain operational experience in most other places.
The concept of bringing in wholesale quantities of foriegn pilots is ludicrous...congress wouldn't go for it on security issues alone, not to mention union and public perception. And even if you did, since most of them would be trained here anyway, they would quickly become americanized...they won't work for $1.25/h for long when they realize that their mortgage payment is $2,500.00/month.
The only realistic foriegn threat is cabotage, where a foriegn vessel or aircraft can provide US domestic service. This is actually illegal, and not likely to change soon (again, security & political issues).
I can understand your willingness to take an opportunity to do something that you have always wanted to, but don't come in with the attitude that you're going get it by taking shortcuts and undercutting the livelihoods of people who have worked for it and have familys to feed. That sort of individual is generally despised in this industry...you won't be welcome.
You have actually made my point very powerfully. Most of what I have read on these forums is a bunch of whining about how terrible things are in the airline industry epitomized by SkyHigh and to a lesser degree nearly everyone else. Constant belly aching over young pilots being given an opportunity to fly with low total flight hours. Criticizing new 121 pilots for being willing to work for relatively low starting wages and for having the audacity to accept a job when it is offered to them. However, that is where the industry cycle is right now. Airlines need to do whatever they have to do to survive this window of time. It would be foolish to whistle while Rome burns.
But the pendulum will swing in the near future and suddenly there will be a great shortage of pilots. Then wages and benefits will go up again. Suddenly thousands of high school seniors will be looking at an airline pilot career as their focus for the future... lured by all the headlines about the huge shortages in the airline industry.
Why should airline pilots be immune from the realities of our market economy? You can hold on to your 20 days off a month and $200G a year while the entire ship sinks into the abyss of bankrupt entities. Or you can understand the realities of market economics and step into the real world of corporate America.
If all you career pilots think you have the game figured out... why don't you exercise an employee led buyout of your airline? Collectively you should be able to pull the money together to buy controlling interest in any company you want. Then give yourselves any income and benefit level you want! Also, make sure you only hire guys who deserve to work for your airline... maybe set your minimums at about 10,000 hours of PIC. Give everyone 8 to 10 day flight maximums each month and start your salaries at $150G for FO's with comprehensive benefits packages and fully-funded pension plans. Lord knows that you don't make enough money to fund your own retirement plans. That should work out great!
Or you could count your blessings and realize that you have one of the best jobs in America, work productively with management to weather the storms of economic cycles and survive. Has anyone ever approached management with a deferred compensation plan? Exchange a large portion of your income package in exchange for stock in the company. Become an airline owner rather than an airline employee. Align your interests with the interests of management. In fact, if you had sufficient stock, you could vote that stock as a group and hold management accountable.
