Tough to say. The Captains I fly with (A320) are sticking, but I hear more rumbling from 190 guys and 320 FOs. It usually comes down to geography. Those who live near a B6 base are just gonna take the CBA, those of us living more than a 2-hour drive are more likely to leave, but its impossible to quantify.
The numbers as they stand now, make leaving a no-brainer, but a very good CBA could change the math- Not the movement though. Thats the worst aspect of B6- retirements are abysmal, which is obviously no fault of B6 and will remain for the next 15 years. This is only 1 opinion out of 3400 pilots.