Originally Posted by
TransWorld
Slice - I agree hard to estimate. But G3/G4 CA at even 15 years from now is an incredible ride.
If in a few years a pilot flows at age 30-35, that means they may be a wide body captain at age 45-50. Amazing.
I just checked the seniority projection of the junior guy on the list.
Based on today's fleet he'll be a 767 CA in 12 years and a G4 CA in 17 yrs. He's currently 31 so that projects to 43 and 48 yrs old.
The reality is the G3 fleet is supposed to be perhaps gone by then or shortly afterwards. The good news is the G4 fleet will be larger. Hopefully the A350's are delivered, OR 330NEO or additional 787's, to replace retiring G3 a/c with G4 a/c. Overall the replacement of G3 a/c with G4 a/c will make w/b CA go more senior because G2 to G3 pay is only $13/hr more but G2 to G4 is $50/hr. For $13/hr senior guys might stay on a G2 a/c. For $50/hr at some point the money talks.
Even a pilot corps growth of 1% a year becomes significant over 10, 20, or 30 years. Hopefully the legacy carriers can regain, and maintain, GDP linked growth. With up-gauging of fleet sizes the pilot corps increase would lag the ASM growth.