Originally Posted by TransWorld

I agree. With a few updated numbers from the rumor mill. What I have heard most frequently:

A few years ago, before the significant hiring at the majors started to kick in, all the majors had 10,000 - 13,000 unique applications on file.

Today AA has 3,000 - 7,000 applications.

Today SW has 3,000 applications. One would assume these are mostly duplicates of what AA has.

Have not heard any specific data points for Delta nor United. One post here said 'they had more that the 10,000 apps from a few years ago.' I have to discount that, I would be willing to bet they are more in line with AA and SW numbers.

There are 20,000 regional pilots. If one assumes the oft quoted 10% lifers, that means 18,000 would be candidates to hire, once they get sufficient hours, etc.

This year the 6 majors (including FedEx and UPS) plan to hire 4,000 pilots. Military hires have been running 1,000 per year. That means they will need to hire 3,000 from the regionals, etc.

If someone from is hired from other paths, the hiring will still need to backfill 3,000 a year into regionals, etc.

Right now there are some former pilots who got out of flying after 9/11/2001 that have other jobs. A number of those are starting to get back into flying. Soon, that well will run dry.

Further, if retirement age goes to 67, this hiring wave may shift to the right by something a bit less than 2 years. It does not go away. It does not get smaller.

As the hiring ramps up to 7,000 a year, with a continued hiring of 1,000 from the military; that means 6,000 from civilian sources. If, as a SWAG, 1,000 come from non regionals, that means hiring at regionals will be 5,000 per year.

18,000/5,000 = 3.6 years average, say 4 years. That would mean 2 years FO and 2 years CA. Or, some amount of shrinkage of regional pilots headcount, if regionals cannot keep up bringing people in.

In crystal ball land, a disaster like a repeat 9/11, growth at majors, internationals hiring expats, etc. etc. could have an effect.

Bottom line, regionals will feel an impossible situation trying to keep up, in just a few years. The majors will have to decide how they respond to keep seats in which their customers may fly.

50s get parked, and replaced with fewer 76s per day to a destination. 76s replaced with 100-120 seat planes just now starting deliveries. Some will be replaced with 737/A320s where this can be economical.

To get pilots, some of the larger regionals flying likely will need to be brought back into the majors to fly. Current pay for these planes at the majors range from 65%-90% of the pay for 737/A320s.

My crystal ball says 65% will be too low. Pay at the majors will settle out at 80%-90% of the pay for 737/A320s. Regionals will go out of business and mergers will take place. My projection is half. Regionals will have a lot fewer than 20,000 pilots by 2025. Regionals pay, while not the amount the majors pay, will not be too far behind, even for the much fewer 50 seat planes they will fly. At that point, my crystal ball turns foggy. I am below minimums and must divert to the alternate airport.