John asks an honest set of questions...
here's my opinion!
There are 4 major issues that need to be discussed-
1) New/next generation Aircraft built with single pilot/reduced crew in mind, with secure comm and computer architecture to grow.
2) Government approval.
3) Public opinion to support it.
4) Pilot/workforce acceptance.
1) New Aircraft-
Boeing is talking about the MOMA/NMA [B797?]. A 757-767 replacement with new technology. They have already talked about it being (possibly) autonomous. Personally, I think they only stated that to create hype. But if they are serious, they will start with a conventional cockpit that has everything built in (and secure) to allow full monitoring and possible remote controlled.
When Boeing actually does this, then we need to be really concerned!
Of course, Boeing is talking about a 2025 timeframe.. and Airbus hasn't mentioned anything yet. Therefore, it's safe to say that it's still a good 7-10 years away.
2) Government approval-
It will take the FAA and the EASA time to figure this out. Again, if the (new) planes are built from the get go with this in mind, you have to think that the aviation authorities will be involved. Keep in mind, we (in the USA) have a huge leap on those in Europe. We have YEARS of data from the DOD/USAF who have been flying remote/drone aircraft for years, over long distances. Just how much data they share? Unknown..
But expect to see the FAA/EASA work with the manufactures to allow some sort of limited crew with remote oversight on cargo aircraft first. How long till that results in actually allowing single pilot/reduced crew? Unknown.. but I would say, we could be talking about 2027ish~
3) The Public-
That's an unknown quantity but if we are talking about 2025+, the reality is that those in positions of power/control will be the same ones who graduated college in the past few years. That generation is already more comfortable with technology and automation than me and my generation! (born '66). When they start talking about single pilot flying cargo, at night.. on a temporary basis, many people may not blink an eye. Fast forward to 2030+ and it's a single pilot flying up and down the coast, or transcons? Not an issue. At that point, we will probably be on our 3rd Generation of Electric/Autonomous cars and Drones delivering some items that you purchased online!
Why do you need two pilots (one paid 300K, the other 150K) when you can have one guy in the cockpit and someone at a remote station following a few aircraft?! (Making 120K!) The public will not be on our side on this one.
4)The Workforce-
Another major unknown. Obviously, every pilot union will come out screaming against it. But lets be honest. The unions and pilot groups screamed about age 60>65 but couldn't stop it. Time invariably forces change. It will be interesting to see how this all works out. Is it one pilot in the cockpit and one at a remote station? Or does the remote station pilot oversee 2, 3, 5? aircraft at a time? What is his/her limits and duty times?
What about the pilot in the cockpit? Certain age limit? higher medical standards? ALOT to be figured out.. but it's coming. Again, 2030ish?
If I were a betting man, here's what I think will happen.
B797 comes out with secure comm, full cockpit but the ability to be flown with single pilot or reduced crew (3 man international down to 2). They will also offer a remote pilot station to be installed at numerous locations.
A cargo company will sign up to be the testbed (Amazon Air?) (Elon Musk company?). They will do the heavy lifting and work with Boeing and the FAA/EASA to start reduced crew ops. They will do this for a few years till the FAA/EASA buys off on it. After that, you will see the next set of new airlines pop up. Boeing will be glad to sell their new aircraft to anyone (just look at ME3, NAS, Iran Air, etc...)
Of course all the pilot unions will be against it and the legacy carriers will try to figure out how to implement this shift. But don't kid yourself.. someone will be first to say they will be shifting to this new way of flying.
In the end, it may take 10-15 years till it affects anyone reading this thread now. But it will happen. History has shown us that technology affects manning and how we work/operate.
Anyone how thinks that in 2032 we will be flying the same way as we do today merely need to look back at 1997 (-20/+15) to see the changes that have happened.
Always
Motch