Originally Posted by ZapBrannigan

A couple of ways. First, I looked at the annual report for the last few years. They typically advertise around 2-3% capacity growth. But remember, capacity growth doesn't necessarily mean more airplanes. The 737-800 holds about 19% more passengers than the 737-700 (or 300). So capacity growth CAN be transparent to pilots.

Here is an excerpt from the annual report.

"The Company currently plans to grow its 2017 available seat miles approximately 3.5 percent, year- over-year, with approximately 2.5 points of that increase relating to domestic growth."

Secondly, I figured the company would eventually max out at between 10,000 and 11,000 pilots. (Speculating based on the number of pilots at mature carriers like AA, DAL, UA that have reached the limits of their growth) So 1% growth over the next 22 years would yield around 11,000 pilots. Granted we might reach that number sooner, which would naturally alter how quickly someone reaches that percentage.

It's all a wag. Nobody has a crystal ball. (I was forecast to retire number 1 at Legacy Brand X when I was hired there 18 years ago. Stuff happens) But I think it is responsible to use a conservative model to forecast upgrade when you're making your decision about where to apply. 1% growth is certainly modest and conservative. No way to know how many pilots actually make it to age 65 or punch out early. As the group ages and more pilots earn 5 weeks of vacation per year (at least 15 weeks with overlap corrections) it will alter the staffing model too.

But anyway... that's how I got the number I used for our little pencil to paper example of how long upgrade COULD take for someone hired today.




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