Originally Posted by
samsmug
I agree, OP should be a recreational pilot if he likes flying. But I think he was asking about the potential for automation to replace airline/cargo pilots.
Math challenge accepted:
Pilots accounted for 9% of operating expenses in 2016 at AA, ~ $3B. Aircraft debt service was ~$200M in 2016. Even if we doubled the cost of aircraft to AA annually to $400M, to account for an automated airliner increase in cost, I think the numbers form a relatively cogent argument.
Of course there would be costs associated with improving infrastructure to allow automated cockpits, but when you save $2B+ annually, there's room to maneuver. And those added infrastructure costs, unlike salaries, can be amortized.
Aircraft debt. What do you think the debt would be if you parked all the current aircraft and then replaced every single one with pilotless aircraft? It would probably bankrupt the company. That and there isn't even remotely the infrastructure in place to remotely control any aircraft from an ATC perspective. I'm not saying it won't eventually be possible, but not during my career.