Originally Posted by Petethedog

For a few reasons, I have been looking at Horizon. However, I came across this info waaayyy back in these threads:

We have a four year seat lock, and currently an upgrade time around 2.5-3 years. We also have a pretty good idea on what Q400 schedules will look like in a few years when the jets start picking up longer, less fatiguing, better paying routes. The big problem about coming here right now is the seat lock. Let me explain with a hypothetical example:

You get hired and are number 350/350 on the Q400. Over the next year, 100 pilots senior to you quit, upgrade, etc. now you are 250/350 and are senior reserve/junior lineholder.

Then they buy 10 jets and park 10 Q400's (not exactly what's happening, but for the sake of simplicity). You are now 250/250, and Joe Pilot a year junior to you is 1/100 on the jet holding a line with weekends and more days off making more than you per month. Your relative seniority drops, or optimistically, it stagnates.

If you come here now your seniority will be like climbing a ladder that is losing rungs behind you. You'll eventually get to the top, but you'll be near the bottom pretty much until your there (that's a confusing metaphor, don't overthink it).

Make sense? You will magically be forever junior on the Q400 until your global seniority is high enough to upgrade. Also, none of this accounts for the fact those Q400 trips will be much worse than they are now. Purely from a seniority standpoint, you'd be kicking yourself for what you've put yourself through for years because you didn't want to commute to ORD for three months.

(I think Snacky spelled this out... nicely illustrated!)

So, given this was 7-8 months back, does anyone care to refute this in light of recent changes? I know there are a few optimists out there...