Originally Posted by
Tailfloatski
So we're upgrading about 10 a month on average, and in 2015 and through some part of 2016 we've been hiring 30+ people a month. I just looked at the latest seniority list, and through the end of 2015 there are on average about 20 remaining FOs per month. So with each passing month at the current upgrade rate, people will be falling an additional month behind. If July 2015 hires could get 2 years and 2 months, December 2015 will be 2 y. 7 m., and so on into 2016. And that's not even counting the couple of dozen bypassing FOs senior to the most junior CA awarded. So unless something changes, summer 2016 hires are likely looking at 3+ years.
As many others have said, I really hope the company picks up upgrades. That being said, I'm afraid they won't until we actually start cancelling flights.
I also disagree! if you take into account all the awards that have been release to this point, through October, a mid Dec '15 hire would have about 90 FO's ahead of them to upgrade. Assuming conservatively only 20 bypass upgrade, and no FO's leave ahead of you (unlikely) that leaves 70. At 10 upgrades a month they will upgrade in may '18 (2 years 5 months). If they increase to 18 per month thats a Feb '18 upgrade (2 years 2 months) and I think those are fairly conservative numbers. In reality they should probably be doing 20+ upgrades a month to keep from falling further behind, 20+ CA critical trips in the last 4 days!