Depends on whether they open Filthy or not

But assuming no undesirable base with super juniority...

Right now upgrade is at 3 years and reaches down 60% from top of list.

Current # of Pilots is roughly 1150. So if you're hired today you'd be ~#1150

Factor some attrition so lets say minus 200 over next 3 years, hence todays newhire would be #950 when it matters.

You'd need ~1580 pilots on property for #950 to be ~60% down the list to have a shot at upgrade.

So from here we gotta hire ~630 to get to 1580 - factoring the minus 200 attrition

My conclusion:

Hiring ~210 a year would put you at 3 year upgrade

Hiring ~160 a year would put you at 4 year upgrade

Hiring ~130 a year would put you at 5 year upgrade

So you have to roll the dice based on what you think is most likely to happen - Grow, Shrink, or Stay the same.


P.S. ....Last 3.5 years has seen an average gain of ~130 pilots /year.