Originally Posted by
itsmytime
Nobody minds reality, but let's have it on both sides of the coin. So if bombs fall on NK, does everybody at the airlines stop aging? Retirements are coming regardless of what happens in the world. You would need massive shrinkage of over 5% a year to not need to hire for retirements. And that's just the mandatories. To say nothing of those that leave before 65 or lose their medical, LTD etc.
Just look at what happened after the last black swan event. Most (major) carriers were about 50%-60% their original (2000) size before their respective mergers. While a significant portion of domestic flying was transferred to the regionals. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 51% of all domestic flying is now done by the regionals when it used to be around 10%.
We are already starting to see some furloughing from the top with single FOS and PBS being implemented. I am guessing somewhere between 8%-10% less folks needed. Hard to tell from the recent seniority list since it also purged the remaining furloughees.
In the even of another black swan event, I predict that 10% would be gone almost immediately and another 5%-10% over the next 12-24 months. Scope would be obliterated and even more flying would be transferred to the regionals. Shrink to profitability would stir its ugly head again and even more flying would be transferred to the code-shares. Just look at how many flights BA has into CONUS vs AA to the UK.
Something about that virtual airline that previous management wanted.
Ever time their is supposed to be a pilot shortage, something happens and there is no longer one.
Hope for the best but plan for the worst.