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Old 08-13-2017 | 07:10 AM
  #214  
wjcandee
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Originally Posted by Screwed
Isn't Connie trying to get more DHL flying and break into the Amazon flying? Although I think K4 may have flown some Amazon trips already,possibly.
Connie has not as of yet flown any Amazon. In order for Amazon to dry-lease aircraft but avoid having to acquire its own AOC, it has taken an ownership position in the operating carrier. I do not think that Amazon is going to get any more net 767s in any event in the near term (i.e. beyond the 40). Down the road, they may trade out some 767-200s for 767-300s, but probably not until the tail end of their existing 767-200 dry leases. That said, it has traditionally been hard to overestimate Amazon's volume growth, so their needs may be exponentially higher just a few years from now, and the playing field with regard to alternative full-service carriers like FedEx and UPS can also change. But sitting here today, I don't see it.

My own opinion is that Northern Aviation has a significant opportunity to be a meaningful player at Prime Air. It was part of the original Aerosmith experiment, where it handled 737 routes. Future expansion might find its way onto an aircraft of that size. Northern can fly 737s and 767s (and by extension 757s), and it doesn't hurt that Saltchuk's top guy is a friend of Bezos. While that would be a lot of expansion for a relatively small carrier, ATI has gone from 7 aircraft to 23+ in less than 2 years, albeit with a more-robust infrastructure.

So If Connie somehow manages to break into the Amazon flying, which I think is unlikely because of the above-mentioned AOC issues, it would be along the lines of what he and Atlas are doing for DHL, where he is slowly replacing ABX, and/or taking what otherwise would have been ABX expansion opportunities on the 767-300.

Last edited by wjcandee; 08-13-2017 at 07:25 AM.
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