What are his odds of getting hired on his current career path? Looking at class resumes posted here or mentioned privately, or looking at the 'who's got hired' thread and how many FO's, or ME 3 FO's, especially with no US PIC time, are getting hired at AA? The answer is very little or perhaps none. And the few FO's that have gotten hired often have connections that were appear to have been a big factor in their getting pulled by the computer.

This is a basic opinion - look at the resumes of guys getting hired and ask yourself - do I compare? If yes continue on your current path. If you don't compare does your current path get you to a competitive resume? If yes continue what you're doing. If no change your path.

Is the OP going to upgrade in 1-2 years? Staying might help. If no upgrade is in sight with 1000 hrs 121 (currently at zero??) he might be able to upgrade by moving back. Or the regional upgrade might come within the next three years. After two to three yrs as a regional captain he will be a median guy, or better, in all aspects.

Here's another comment about anyone's current resume, if your current resume isn't gaining much traction will X years doing more of the same thing make you more competitive? Or are there other options that allow you to broaden your experience? The perfect example is how many military guys believe getting a regional job triggered a call from a major airline? Former military pilots have literally received one, two, or three contacts after getting a 121 regional job. Were they going to get called anyway? Probably. But does the simple fact of checking 121, a new type rating, new jeopardy event, civilian experience, light up the hiring computer's motherboard?? The answer for some, or perhaps many, appears to be yes. That also might apply to civilians.

A common recommendation by the muckity mucks in hiring is "chase the job." Some candidates really do while some appear to be waiting for the job to find them.

Another recommendation is "be better than your peers." It's possible that the computer seeks that out.

Read posts by guys who've been hired at a major or a regional. You learn different things in a new job. Many mention that. If there's opportunities out there to improve your resume or experience, that aren't a step backwards or a dead end option, I think consideration should be given to challenging yourself. Here's a question to ask - will my resume and personal knowledge base be better if I spend more time at my current job or if I get a different job? That takes some analysis of the future. Is a regional FO job a step backwards for the OP? Yes. But if it leads to a US based 121 upgrade? That depends upon his upgrade timeline at his ME3 job.

I recommend written future resumes, based on a forward looking analysis, on an annual basis assuming you stayed or took a different job. Which job choice makes your resume look like the ones of the guys getting hired? The answer to the 'do I stay or do I go' question might become more obvious.

And none of this has discussed the family dynamics or ex-pat fatigue.