Agreed. Upgrade more and that allows recruiting to show that our upgrade time is going to be more competitive, thus attracting more new hires. If you don't upgrade because of a concern of lack of FOs, you're just making the problem worse. Potential new hires then will see current FOs who are on reserve for a long time and be able to do the math that they won't upgrade for a long time and will decide to go somewhere else. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy or catch 22. Whichever you prefer.

Not to mention that upgrading more captains will mean the existing FOs will start to see upward movement, too, and get them off reserve into better relative seniority. It'd be much-needed good news for everyone all around, and you wouldn't have captains getting worked to death with 90+ hours and min days off either!

Moral of the story is: upgrade more captains! You upgrade them, the FOs will come (or at least more of them).