Originally Posted by
Bluewaffle
We all talk of the C series because of its capabilities but I think the more likely scenario for a 100+ seater is the 195E2. United really doesn't have a mission that can take advantage of the C series' 3300 mile range. Id argue that Delta hasn't figured out what its mission is either save from taking over E175 flying which barely scratches the surface of the C series capabilities. If a SMNB order is placed with United, it will also take over E175 flying, freeing up those aircraft to take over 50 seat flying. Since this purchase gives some scope relief to 76 seat aircraft, its only natural that they would tie the purchase together with more E175s and get a better deal. Just my 2 cents but I think Embraer has the advantage here with fleet commonalty and price. The 195e2 has a 2600 mile range, plenty of capability for what United would use it for.
I will take the other side of the argument.
First I believe the company has telegraphed their intentions quite clearly. They converted 737-700 orders to MAX orders which to me says they are not concerned about the 100-150 range of the fleet. They also made it quite clear they have a strict budget for capital allocation over the next 4 years. Purchasing a new fleet is not within keeping to that plan. Meanwhile the head of ALPA scheduling committee said this:
Everyone is Waiting for the Big Route and Fleet Plan
Well you can stop waiting because it’s not going to happen. Yes, there is lots of change going on but it will remain a piece by piece process. (See previous reports)
and the company has said repeatedly they continue to be actively looking in the used airplane category so I would place 10:1 odds you will see no NSNB but rather continuing dribs and drabs of used Airbus or maybe possibly sorta a chance of buying a Frontier or a Spirit, meanwhile there will be no big "Fleet Plan".I do think that from now to 2020 you will see more of what we already are seeing namely,
- cancellation of A350s
- added 777s as markets warrant or older planes retire
- completion of 787 deliveries
- minor growth with 737 MAX 9s
-used A319s as available
beyond the next 4 years as I discussed in the other thread I feel we will order (or actually have already ordered) the Boeing 797 to replace our 767s and then I think the 737MAX-10 will replace the 757s.
Ultimately I think the question of what replaces the A319/320 gets pushed out beyond the next 4 years, but regardless I do not believe either the E195 or the CS100/300 are even in the running.