Thread: Reserve
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Old 09-01-2017 | 05:18 AM
  #15  
bigtime209
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Originally Posted by Castle Bravo
By rise, do you mean flow times get longer, or quicker?
Flow time will keep going down (getting quicker) and will drop as low as 5 years. Guys that got hired around April and May of last year hit it absolutely perfect. They will see about a 5 year flow, possibly slightly sooner. Then as you get to guys hired after that point in time, flow starts rising. Think about it, if you're hiring far many more guys a month than you flow, the flow time has nowhere to go but up (get longer). Without an increase in the amount of guys we send to AA each month, flow time will continue to increase.

And keep in mind, the language for new hires regarding flow is that Envoy will send the lesser of 25% of AA slots or 5 new hire slots (increase by one for every 125 pilots above the base of 480 on the list) multiplied by the number of months in the year. What all of that complicated language boils down to is that they will be sending 15-17 guys a month.

Right now, the particular group of guys that we are sending are going at a minimum rate of 25/month. After that group finishes (anyone hired after 10/2011) the flow rate drops to 15/month. We are currently hiring anywhere from 65-75 guys per month. The flow can't keep up with hiring that many people so mathematically the only outcome is for the flow time to keep increasing. It's currently 8 years and as long as we keep hiring big numbers and our flow rate doesn't increase, flow will be creeping in on the 9 year mark within a few months.
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