Originally Posted by
Castle Bravo
Flow in 8 years??
I know it's marketing, but Envoy is "projecting" flow to AA in 6 years; with the mandatory retirements looming (all else being equal), I am hoping that the flow will accelerate even faster than that. The USAF can't fill cockpits, can't even get enough applications for the Thunderbirds, and can't even fill navigator classes. They are now producing enlisted UAV pilots. There is just not enough mil pilots to feed the airlines in the numbers required for the next 10 yrs. AA "must" retire nearly 11,000 pilots in the next 15 years. Things could change, but wow, the opportunities ahead of us are pretty amazing. From 2021-24, AA will have 3600 retire (900/yr); Envoy flows 25% each year, or 225 pilots. Over those 4 years, that is 900 envoy CAs out the door, not to mention those going elsewhere. Is my math right? Could flow (at that time) be about 4 years total?
No, your math is wrong. Flow is contractually set to decrease at certain times, and is capped by the company every month, no matter how much AA hires. Current new hires are projected to flow in 8+ years, and that seems to be an optimistic projection, since every year there seem to be periodic training backlogs at AA (like what they are experiencing right now), and every year the actual number of flows is well under the projected number.
The specifics of the flow could someday change if it becomes unsustainable, but as it is currently written and enacted flow could not be 4 years for a new hire.