Originally Posted by atpcliff

They will get more and more desperate, as the retirements, hiring, and demand all kick in.

UAL plans to hire 1200 in 2018, DAL is 700-800 in 2017, so plan on more than that in 2018 due to increased retirements, AA planned to hire 750 in 2017, so plan more than that in 2018 due to increased retirements. FedEx is at about 800 for 2017. UPS is about at 300 for 2017. SWA I have no idea, but they are hiring.

So, just using the above, for 2018, conservatively expect 4000 pilots hired at The Big 6. The hiring in 2019 is expected to be greater than 2018, due to even more retirements. If the AA list is already down to 3000 minimally qualified pilots, expect the list to be closer to zero than 3000. The will get some new applicants every year, but the number of new pilots has been trending down for many years.

Many people have the same apps in at UAL/DAL/AA/FedEx/UPS/SWA, or various combinations of the above. Each time someone is hired at the above, it pulls multiple applications out of the system.