Originally Posted by flyhigh254

I think you/ALPA are way off on this one, here's why:

1. The 1500 hour/ATP rule came into effect in response to the Colgan 3407 crash in 2009--which actually had nothing to do with the number of hours either pilot had. While the FO did not have her ATP, she had 2200 something hours and I believe started at the regional with over 1500 or close to it. There were actual causal factors that were addressed in the mandate from Congress, like the new fatigue rules, but that's beyond this discussion.

2. If you go to the link you provided, it states that there have been no US based crashes since 2009. Thank God for that, however, the 1500 rule didn't go into effect until 2013 I believe, so how do you account for 2009-2013? Also, as I mentioned above, there were many changes made by the FAA as directed by Congress. Can you be sure that any one of those changes has made a significant increase in airline safety over another? Lastly, basic statistics dictates that correlation does not prove causation.

3. Research has been done that shows that number of hours alone is not a good predictor of success/safety. In fact, the studies show that pilots between 500-1000 hours statistically perform better, at least during training, that other hour groups. Yes, I'll agree that every hour you're in an airplane gives you a more experience, and a chance to improve your piloting skills. But, I do not believe that grinding out 1500 hours as a single-engine flight instructor makes you a safer jet pilot--flying jets makes you a safer jet pilot.

4. The fact is the regionals are facing a pilot shortage, a problem that is going to compound greatly over the next few years as retirements at Delta, (maybe others I don't follow), spike. I think the majors are a long way off from feeling the pressure directly because they have the entire regional pool to dry up first. However, Horizon cancelled flights this summer and Republic filed bankruptcy last year, both citing pilot shortage as the cause.

5. Now is the best time to be a new airline pilot in the last 16 years at least, if not ever. And, yes some of that is due to the regionals' hands being forced to increase pay and benefits to ensure their seats are filled. But some of it is also due to massive growth in the industry, world wide. The simple fact is that there are not enough pilots being trained to meet the demand--by a long shot. I don't believe that even if the hours requirement is lowered that the demand will be met--which means we don't have to worry about our pay dropping any time soon. If seats continue to go unfilled, though, what do you think will happen to the regional industry, and the airline industry as a whole? I think there will be a very negative impact.

I will caveat my post by saying that I tried to put "I believe", or "I think" where I made conjecture, otherwise, I can cite most, if not all, of what I've written.