I keep hearing from multiple sources that the goal is 12,000 pilots by 2022. So I went to myseniority.com to see the seniority list growth rate graph. That's roughly 7% seniority list growth rate by 2022. Please don't pay attention to numbers beyond 2022 as data becomes gibberish, as in no we most likely won't have 45000 pilots on the property by your retirement date.
We currently have right around 9,000 pilots on the property. Within that same time frame, we will be retiring around 600 pilots according to SWAPA retirement schedule. That means that in order to achieve the 12,000 mark, we'll need to hire 3,600 pilots over the next 5 years, or 720 per year.
Bear in mind, this is also assuming 0 early-outs, nor does it include any other factors such as people reaching the 18 year mark and having 5 weeks of vacation as opposed to 4.
This brings me to our upgrade times. Current junior captains are right around 60-61% on the master seniority list. Using that same seniority percentage, depending on when one was hired, the data seems to support a 5-7 year upgrade for those hired during this wave of hiring. For me personally, it falls just shy of 6 years on the property.
Now... this is all assuming organic growth, i.e. no mergers.
If we were to merge with someone, keep their pilots and dump their aircraft a'la AirTran, forget these numbers...
If we were to introduce a new aircraft type and keeping it organic, these numbers will likely get even better as it would require more hiring which would mean even quicker upgrade.
Who knows what will happen... but I do believe something is up as I know Southwest doesn't blow 9 figures on building facilities they don't fully intend to use to their max potential.