Whoa Adler, who burnt your toast? Obliged by custom to pre-qualify everything that follows, IMHO.
If you take the time to work through ptarmigan's Asiana paper, you'll notice a method entitled, CAST. (Casual Analysis using Systems Theory) I take this to mean examining events from some form of a causal determinism (probability) framework applied to systems theory (altering one component affects the entire structure with predictable outcomes.) In short, free will is a human construct. Won't help you get off the gate any sooner but pretty interesting if you have the time. Which, since everything under the sun is pre-ordained, either you already do or you don't.