Originally Posted by
RiddleEagle18
But that's the kicker. Retirements are guaranteed. How many does jetblue have in the next 10 years? It's less than 200!
At this point a new hire at JB would need the company to grow by 3500 pilots to reach 50% in 10 years. How likely do you think that is? At the same time united and AA both retire over 50% of their list.
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There are no guarantees.
Airlines can, and have, used retirements to shrink seniority lists.
You might not have been in the industry, but United shut down their 737 fleet WHILE retirements were happening and they STILL furloughed 20% of their list in the late 2000's.
Additionally, I think it's likely the airline grows that much, but it's at such a measured rate it's like watching grass grow.
JetBlue has an order book of around 120 airframes. Let's say they all show up on property at 12 year per for 10 years. At 17 pilots per airframe, it's that'll mean around 6000 pilots for 350 airframes in ten years.
Current staffing is a little lower than this, 17 is my assumption under the CBA.