Originally Posted by
3EngineTaxi
In truth, no one knows if a year flow will ever happen until 6 years from now. In 6 years, we can all look back and learn whether or not a 6 year flow was a good guess or a bad guess. Either way, it's simply a guess.
If I was betting money on it, I'd wager that a 6 year flow won't happen. 6 years is based on a very optimistic set of scenarios. Any number of events could and likely will slow or stop the flow:
A pause in hiring at mainline
Scope relief at mainline
Economic recession
Bankruptcy
War
Another mainline merger
Automation
A merger among the wholly owned companies
Etc.
It may be risky to go to a low cost carrier, but it's equally as risky to wait patiently in line for one's turn to flow.
My advice: Do what you think is best for you and your family, and don't drink the Kool Aid.
My previous responses sound like a real jerk, but 3EngineTaxi has nailed it here. This is really the deal and what needs to be said. I got bashed leaving Envoy a couple of years ago for Allegiant because it was such a crappy LCC and such. At the time, granted, they did not have the current contract and the pay rates are much, much better now along with other areas.
The reason I left was due to what I felt was the uncertainty of the flow. Yes, you had the lost decade and I took that into account. But with the company's history of violating agreements and the way the hiring numbers and flow numbers looked, I decided it was better for me to live in base, Florida (home every night), and to go where I am now. For me, it's worked out great. I've got apps out still but haven't received any calls. Hopefully as my PIC bus time increases, I might get a hit. In the worse case scenario, I don't mind it if I get "stuck" here. Things are not bad and I've got lots of guys below me in the event something should happen.
In the meantime, all you newbies quick to jump on the bashing bandwagon, look at 3Engine's points above. That's essentially why I left.