September everyone here was all hush hush sworn to silence thinking they were somehow going to change the world.
I said:
No scope
Company retirement
SWA pay
Maybe 2 mos retro
We got:
No scope
Company retirement
SWA pay (- 6mos )
6 mos out of the year our hourly rate is identical 6 mos we are 3% behind.... 1st 3 years Fo’s obviously did better. I was honestly only looking at 12 year CA though.
No retro
This is how arbitration works. This is almost the textbook arbitrated award. No one won. Why have you not heard anything from the company? They know they didn’t win and are now trying to make this all work. I own two companies, I get it. One of my companies is doing well the other ok, but I understand economics. Our new pay rates along with the current economics in the airline industry have our company regressing significantly on profit margin next year. Alaska traditional network spread will likely be around 16% next year and Virgin network around 7%. Although those are great numbers in the grand scheme of things it is not what AS management sold to Wall Street. In fact, I would see it likely that some upper level management names change over the next 6 mos because of this. Management is already talking about cutting growth over the next three years. Look for an announcement soon. We will grow in seats only (swapping smaller for larger aircraft and adding seats to the airbus fleet) in the near term, not in number of aircraft. Other airlines will sign contracts soon. Will they do any better then Alaskas arbitrated award. I don’t think so.
Likely pay scales
JetBlue 245$
Spirit 235$
Frontier 225$
They will all find pilots too, near term
Two years from now when the big three go into full hiring mode, I think things change and now we are not governed by arbitration. We can get scope, scheduling changes, better pay. If you are surprised or depressed by this award you really don’t understand how arbitration works. If the economy does well and Alaska does well these next two years we can capture a lot or we can burn the house and quickly go back to Frontier rates. My advice, grow up and put your big boy pants on.
We have another divisive arbitration coming soon, SLI. If you are awaiting a captain bid at Alaska you want this process to take as long as possible. If you are at Virgin, you want it to happen yesterday. Growth will slow significantly in the near term as this merger is digested. There are only so many captain slots available and upon completion of the SLI, Virgin will control a significant portion of those positions. The funny thing about this SLI is we are wasting millions fighting over 100 or so positions. VX will be merged in Alaska at year 01-06. That sounds like a big spread but it is only about 150 numbers. When the dust settles the senior at AS win, the senior FO’s at VX win and the rest of us go about our lives. The #1 AS Sea captain will still get the vacation and lines they want. The number #1 VX SFO CA will still get the line and vacation they want, however with a lower company wide seniority. Nothing will change for most of us but we will all act surprised when it happens. Some will throw tantrums, some will threaten to leave. In the end not much will change but the banter. If you really are that unhappy, leave. My guess is most of you are actually better off staying though.