the only way it will happen is if EVERY alpa supporter actually votes, plus at least half of the on-the-fence guys vote yes.
I would say you have it in the bag but that pay vote last year was a real negative indication of skywest pilots apathy towards getting involved and voting. the vast majority of skw pilots didnt want that pay package, yet it passed due to a lack up voter turnout. i fear this will happen again with the alpa vote
And WAVIT - Fedex knows whats not best for your pilot group, and thats SAPA