Originally Posted by rickair7777

Not exactly. If things stay on the current trajectory (which is to say majors paying lip service to the future problem), then eventually majors will have to hire 1500 hour pilots.

In their current mode, they seem to select for two obvious categories...

a) Whole Person: These requirements are fairly static: background, degree, GPA, psych/cog test, leadership, volunteer, recent training, affirmative action, trainable(ie young), personality.

b) Flight Experience: The bar has dropped over the years.

Apparently the trajectory is to lower b) as needed to get candidates who have what they want in a).

For example they are consistently hiring low-time regional FO's who score well in a). Notably, they are passing over experienced regional captains who don't have recent training, or accumulated a background/training hiccup over the decades.

Extrapolate this trend... at some point they'll hire regional FO's with 500, then 200 hours TSIC.

Eventually they'll be faced with hiring CFI's with good a) scores, or regional lifers with good b) scores... what will they do then?

I suspect they'll hire CFI's, but with some kind of training prep program. Jetblue obviously prefers neophytes to RJ CA's. This has a HUUUUGE advantage... majors can DIRECTLY incentivize people they want to enter the profession IMMEDIATELY if they know they don't have to degrade themselves by flying a crappy RJ for under six figures. Especially appealing to any demographic who wants it all right now, without having to pay dues.

At some point they'll probably lower the whole person requirements as well, but how low? Will they lower them enough to get to YOUR level?