New Flow Realities
It has become apparent that the flow isn't going to be honored. This year we've seen hiring halts and maximum metering each month. All those "projections" used to sell new hires a 6 year ticket to AA are now looking like Monopoly money.
The seniority list that the union puts out several times a year is a really good indicator. Over the past two years, Pilot A has watched his "projected" flow date change further into the future with each publication. Last week in fact, a new list was published that essentially added an additional three months to everyone on the list. This happens regularly.
While technically not a violation, AA hired 84 in November. Envoy sent 25. If the contract was honored as written, 42 would have flowed by the close of business today. Instead, AA/Envoy chose to use the language allowing the company to send 25 per month only due to "operational necessity." It has even been stated by Envoy management that no more than 25 would flow per month in any circumstance.
With the indentured servitude one has to put in just to work at Envoy, at least if there was a light at the end of the tunnel, it might make sense to wait it out. Turns out that light was just a match the company lit and they keep walking backwards as you watch it get dim.
Envoy is very close to being in serious trouble, along with many other regionals. Forcing a new hire to upgrade before he even completes FO training is a solid statement that the company is in serious trouble trying to fill all the bodies needed to fly the airplanes and schedule AAG wants. It will be very interesting to see the new hire numbers next month now that the Endeavor TA is active.