That latest seniority list had the most junior pilot "projected" to flow around 8 years and 2 months. That doesn't include new hires below this guy. The real number for a new hire is likely 8 years and 10 months or so. That's with ZERO hiccups.
Look at the "hiccups" this year.
September - very little AA hiring, less than 25 flow, I think it was 17
October - ZERO AA hiring, ZERO flow
November - 84 new hires, 25 flows
December - ZERO hiring, ZERO flow
I know the "projections" don't take into account the reduced and zero hiring months which continue to exacerbate the length of the flow for those on property now. If you are a 2006 or 2007 hire, you have a good chance of making it over to AA in the next 3+ years or so. Beyond that, I say all bets are off.