For the next 8 yrs AA has more retirements, both as a percentage and actual count.

Your first statement related to relative seniority gain. The data doesn’t support your statement that UA’s relative gain exceeds AA’s.

UA’s larger w/b total makes your second statement, using a different comparison, perhaps true. Using today's bidding patterns guys might be CA’s at AA in five years. 3,600+ retirements, 25% of the list, in the next five years makes that possible. All it will take is 2% more retirements in the next five years, vs the planned retirements, as well as everyone having the same bidding patterns in the future.

Your second comparison, using w/b FO’s, is tricker. We don’t have UA’s G4 data. In five years only 3 of 9 G4 FO bid statuses will at AA be available to a current newhire using today’s bidding/planning data. In six years it advances to 5 of 9 due to retirements and in 7 yrs it will be 9 of 9.

You’re also assuming UA will expand faster than DL or AA in the next five years? Has a management mentioned that?