Originally Posted by
Whiskey4
Not if attrition is happening in the bottom of the list. Training/probie releases, lateral moves for higher pay, short-timers (i.e. mil pilots tagging up while waiting for a major). Attrition outside of flow really stagnates as you get higher up the seniority list. People start to see AA at the end of the tunnel and get lazy.
Of course trainees/probies and short-timers will not move one up in seniority after one comes off probationary. How many of the non-flow attrition are in that group?
My crystal ball says, given all these things, is a 6 - 8 year flow. YMMV