Chicken Little has done a much more detailed and thorough calculation. (Thank you.) It arrives at a 8.5 years flow assuming a 10% retirement/attrition. That is close to the 6 - 8 years my crystal ball sees. The two big unknowns are what the actual retirement/attrition rate is (I think it might be a bit more, shortening the flow time — the regional world will change radically over the next few years) and if there are any changes in contractual flows (more unlikely).

I believe the statement (if I understand it correctly) of just considering contractual flow number and nothing else is overly conservative. No matter how one arrives at it, there will be a significant number of retirements/attrition/etc higher up the seniority.

ORDinary - Did Chicken Little (and stated here in APC on the Envoy page) correctly represent your understanding of the contract?