Originally Posted by
TransWorld
In 2017 there were 450 mandatory retirements, yet there were 645 hired. How do you explain that thinking?
You are ignoring early retirements, pilots leaving for other reasons, new hires that do not make it, growth, etc. etc. Wise planning considers these other factors.
Someone in an earlier post calculated the number of pilots needed (ignoring managment, training, disability, other leaves, etc). Based on his numbers, AA should hire zero and should furlough a number of pilots. Clearly this calculation does not consider these other factors, either.
Since the 2017 plan was to hire 625 and the actual hires were 645, I would be inclined to believe the 2018 plan of 900 to 925 as being a pretty good forecast. (Or 730 if aapilots is the lastest info.)
The first class had 39 report to it. That is right on track for 900 to 925.
You are welcome to your opinion.
Well I included all retirements as "retirements" not just mandatory.
That would be around 600 +/- a few I'd bet without doing hard math.
I'm guessing, like always, hiring is front loaded at the beginning of the year due to summer staffing needs. After July or so we don't need as many bodies.
So I wouldn't be surprised to see high hiring for Jan-May and then pull back to a lower number, to even include a month or two without NH classes. But that is just looking at past history.